When you look at college football from a year to year basis, it has the potential to get tricky. There is a lot of turnover at key positions and new faces that are unproven. Whereas the players in the NFL have a longer statistical memory, college football is flushed with new faces and turnover at key positions.
Looking ahead at the 2009 season, we have done an analysis on the teams that brought us the highest returns last year and determine if our clients can use past performance to create an advantage for the upcoming season.
The reason we included “GAME WINNER” in this table is because in many cases, we are not dealing with teams that were overwhelming favorites (except Ohio State and Oklahoma State). These are teams that currently live in the middle of the road, but played very close to the AccuScore simulations straight up and against the spread.
UNLV Rebels
Overview:
We are very excited about the 2009 UNLV season, with the Rebels returning seven starters on both offense and defense. You have a new non-conference schedule with UNLV so I suggest waiting for their conference schedule to kick in before playing their point spreads.
Advice:
The UNLV conference schedule is identical to last year and the Rebels should not get a lot of respect coming off a 5-7 season. Our advice is to pay attention to UNLV in their first three games of the year and then look for the big gap between the AccuScore simulation and the Vegas line once conference play starts because you will find tremendous value.
Miami Hurricanes
Overview:
For a team who had such a strong 2007 recruiting class, the start of the 2009 season looks like a disaster waiting to happen. AccuScore’s early projections show the Hurricanes are a strong candidate to go 0-4, but we are not sure the odds makers are going to be quick to catch on.
Advice:
Any time a team returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense, we are excited. Combine that with our 83% ML accuracy and 82% ATS accuracy and we are very encouraged about the potential of our picks in Miami games. Unlike UNLV, we suggest jumping with both feet with Miami games being that their first four games are against teams that return a lot of starters (with statistical track records) as well.
Arizona State
Overview:
Arizona State is not a team that I would invest time in early in the season. They are a mediocre team that will play a lot of mediocre teams in the Pac 10. We are interested to see how they do in replacing Rudy Carpenter and if they can get sustainable play from the running back position.
Advice:
With only 13 starters back in 2009, we advise you to wait to see how Arizona State matches up with the projections. If numbers trend successfully, we suggest waiting until mid-October before getting involved with any sort of action with the Sun Devils. An important barometer is measuring their projected stats vs. actual stats when they travel to Georgia on September 26.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Overview:
Ohio State is a team that we expect to do very well with in 2009. I am not sure how much better you can do than 12-0 straight up, but we believe the Buckeyes will repeats as a very profitable team this year. We are concerned that they replace Robiske and Hartline at wide receiver, but those two bailed out Terrell Prior more than anything. Because Ohio State is not a precision passing team, we think the younger receiving core will allow Ohio State to play even closer to their projections this season
Advice:
The game everyone wants to talk about is USC coming to Columbus. This is a game where the number will be very important. From a strategic point perspective, the advantage is to Ohio State. Ohio State also has fewer variables to worry about, whereas USC will be playing a new quarterback and have eight new faces on defense. Although Ohio State only returns five starters on offense, their running game will be more effective with Dan Herron and Prior and Ohio State is the best team in the conference.
Washington Huskies
Overview:
Washington will improve under Steve Sarkisian and that is all they can do after their 2008 season. However, we noticed that Washington gets an abnormal amount of respect with the odds makers in Vegas, thus presenting good financial opportunities for the player. Our computer were quick to realize Washington would not be good. The only games we picked them to win last year were at home vs. Stanford and against Washington State.
Advice:
Last year’s respect on the Vegas line seems to be already showing itself for this season when the Huskies host LSU. Despite being in a hard to reach area of the country, Washington had no home field advantage and gave up a minimum of four touchdowns to each talented program who played in Seattle. LSU is only a 17 point favorite on the road (up 3 points from the opening line) and AccuScore has LSU by 21 in this game. Additionally, should USC lose to Ohio State, you might also get a friendly price when the Huskies host the Trojans on September 19th. Washington returns 18 starters and we see nothing to indicate that we will not duplicate our 2008 record in picks where Washington plays.
Oklahoma State
Overview:
Oklahoma State will be in the top ten throughout the entire year and we feel they will be this year’s Texas Tech. The Cowboys return every member of one of the nation’s most potent offenses with a coach dedicated to making it work again. Despite this being “their” year, AccuScore had the 2008 team pegged with 83% accuracy straight up and 67% against the spread.
Advice:
The Cowboys schedule sets up great for their run, and for the player to get great value. OSU is only a 5.5 point favorite when they open their season at home against a terribly overrated Georgia team. AccuScore feels this line is off by seven points and the Cowboys should be able to flex their muscle with a double digit win against a traditional SEC power. If OSU does beat Georgia, the odd makers should come back with a big overlay in points when host Houston the following week. Houston can score points (37 last year against OSU) and should provide a good opportunity to take an awful lot of points. Additionally, OSU drew the week part of the Big 12 North and matches up against Missouri, Iowa State and Colorado. AccuScore was 29-6 straight up with those three teams in 2008 indicating that all three match-ups will be with teams who play close to our simulations.
