My wife has a conference in Vegas and I decided to tag along to make a few Futures bets in the NFL and College Football. I don’t have the Vegas Casino lines in front of me so I’m going to rely on a set of online sportsbook lines to make picks.
TOO MUCH JUICE ON CONFERENCE AND SUPER BOWL WINNER BETS
The first thing I’m going to do is NOT bet on who will win the AFC or NFC. I translated the betting lines for each team into the % chance Vegas is giving each team to win the conference. If you add up the individual percentages you end up over 150 percent in each conference. If the Sportsbooks were offering fair odds the percentages would add up to maybe 115% or 120% at most. There is not a single good bet on the board when you consider these lines. The same thing goes on Super Bowl bets where the total % chance of all teams in the league is 163.1%.
MY DIVISION WINNER BETS
The Division Winner juice is acceptable. If you add up the % chance Vegas gives each team you get a shade over 120% which is reasonable. I took the percentages and adjusted them to add up to 100% (%Adj Column) and also took AccuScore’s % chance each team has of winning the division as of 8/1. Highlighted in yellow are 3 AFC teams with an Acc% that is actually higher than not only the %Adj, but also the overall %Chance with the vig.
One of the three picks I like is Baltimore. The Ravens are a little bit of a long-shot as Pittsburgh is favored to repeat by both Vegas odds-makers and AccuScore. However, with Derrick Mason un-retiring and Joe Flacco playing with one year of experience under his belt I agree with AccuScore simulations that Baltimore has around a 40% chance of winning the AFC North. The Baltimore bet is a long shot compared to the other 2 bets, but I like a 42% chance of making 180% ROI. If I were nearing retirement I would not risk my 401K on this, but a hundred bucks on my favorite team at nearly 2 to 1? I’ll take that.
| AFC NORTH | Open | %Chance | %Adj | Acc% |
| Pittsburgh | 5/7 | 58.3% | 48.1% | 53% |
| Baltimore | 9/5 | 35.7% | 29.4% | 42% |
| Cleveland | 5/1 | 16.7% | 13.7% | 2% |
| Cincinnati | 9/1 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3% |
WIN TOTALS
The analysis below is highly tentative because I don’t know what the juice is on the over/under. A bet like St. Louis under 5.0 may look good based on the -1.2 difference between AccuScore’s simulation average win total and the betting line, but what if you have to pay -135 on the under vs +130 on the over?
I identified the teams where the AccuScore simulation average win total was at least 0.5 points less than the betting line and highlighted a few teams that I personally like. I like the Under on Houston because they are in such a competitive division (Colts, Titans, Jaguars are one season removed from being in the AFC Championship game) and to lose the under bet they would need to win 9+ games. In AccuScore simulations they are only winning over 50% in 7 of their 16 games.
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My wife has a conference in Vegas and I decided to tag along to make a few Futures bets in the NFL and College Football. I don’t have the Vegas Casino lines in front of me so I’m going to rely on a set of online sportsbook lines to make picks.
TOO MUCH JUICE ON CONFERENCE AND SUPER BOWL WINNER BETS
The first thing I’m going to do is NOT bet on who will win the AFC or NFC. I translated the betting lines for each team into the % chance Vegas is giving each team to win the conference. If you add up the individual percentages you end up over 150 percent in each conference. If the Sportsbooks were offering fair odds the percentages would add up to maybe 115% or 120% at most. There is not a single good bet on the board when you consider these lines.
| AFC | Current | %Chance | NFC | Current | %Chance | |
| New England | 2/1 | 33.3% | N.Y. Giants | 9/2 | 18.2% | |
| Pittsburgh | 4/1 | 20.0% | Philadelphia | 11/2 | 15.4% | |
| San Diego | 11/2 | 15.4% | Dallas | 6/1 | 14.3% | |
| Indianapolis | 11/2 | 15.4% | Minnesota | 7/1 | 12.5% | |
| Baltimore | 15/2 | 11.8% | Carolina | 15/2 | 11.8% | |
| Tennessee | 8/1 | 11.1% | Chicago | 8/1 | 11.1% | |
| Miami | 14/1 | 6.7% | Atlanta | 8/1 | 11.1% | |
| Houston | 15/1 | 6.3% | Green Bay | 8/1 | 11.1% | |
| Buffalo | 16/1 | 5.9% | Arizona | 10/1 | 9.1% | |
| Jacksonville | 18/1 | 5.3% | New Orleans | 10/1 | 9.1% | |
| N.Y. Jets | 18/1 | 5.3% | Washington | 12/1 | 7.7% | |
| Kansas City | 20/1 | 4.8% | San Francisco | 18/1 | 5.3% | |
| Denver | 20/1 | 4.8% | Seattle | 20/1 | 4.8% | |
| Cleveland | 25/1 | 3.8% | Tampa Bay | 20/1 | 4.8% | |
| Cincinnati | 40/1 | 2.4% | St. Louis | 40/1 | 2.4% | |
| Oakland | 40/1 | 2.4% | Detroit | 50/1 | 2.0% | |
| 154.6% | 150.5% |
The same thing goes on Super Bowl bets where the total % chance of all teams in the league is 163.1%.
MY DIVISION WINNER BETS
The Division Winner juice is acceptable. If you add up the % chance Vegas gives each team you get a shade over 120% which is reasonable. I took the percentages and adjusted them to add up to 100% (%Adj Column) and also took AccuScore’s % chance each team has of winning the division as of 8/1. Highlighted in yellow are 3 AFC teams with an Acc% that is actually higher than not only the %Adj, but also the overall %Chance with the vig.
The 3 teams in the AFC are Baltimore, Indianapolis, and San Diego. I’ll go in reverse order in why I like these picks.
San Diego was horrendous last season and they still won the division. Denver lost Jay Cutler, Oakland and Kansas City both are years away from contending and San Diego returns a team that won a playoff game last season. If I bet on the Chargers I won’t make much money if the Chargers win, but even if I make a 12 to 18% profit depending on the lines offered in Vegas, it’s still a very good ROI over 5 months and will probably out-perform the stock market.
The Colts are also a smart bet. The Titans were the dominant team last season, but I think Kerry Collins got lucky. The Titans have a harder schedule in 2009 and they lost Albert Haynesworth via Free Agency. Even Vegas doesn’t like the Titans as they give a 13 win team just a 25% chance of repeating as the division winner. The Colts won their final 9 regular season games last year and I think they will one again repeat as division champs. I’ll also get close to doubling my money when the Colts repeat.
The Ravens are a little bit of a long-shot as Pittsburgh is favored to repeat by both Vegas odds-makers and AccuScore. However, with Derrick Mason un-retiring and Joe Flacco playing with one year of experience under his belt I agree with AccuScore simulations that Baltimore has around a 40% chance of winning the AFC North. The Baltimore bet is a long shot compared to the other 2 bets, but I like a 42% chance of making 180% ROI. If I were nearing retirement I would not risk my 401K on this, but a hundred bucks on my favorite team at nearly 2 to 1? I’ll take that.
| AFC EAST | Open | %Chance | %Adj | Acc% |
| New England | 1/7 | 87.5% | 72.1% | 84% |
| Miami | 11/2 | 15.4% | 12.7% | 12% |
| Buffalo | 15/2 | 11.8% | 9.7% | 3% |
| N.Y. Jets | 14/1 | 6.7% | 5.5% | 1% |
| 121.3% | ||||
| AFC NORTH | Open | %Chance | %Adj | Acc% |
| Pittsburgh | 5/7 | 58.3% | 48.1% | 53% |
| Baltimore | 9/5 | 35.7% | 29.4% | 42% |
| Cleveland | 5/1 | 16.7% | 13.7% | 2% |
| Cincinnati | 9/1 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3% |
| 120.7% | ||||
| AFC SOUTH | Open | %Chance | %Adj | Acc% |
| Indianapolis | 10/11 | 52.4% | 43.2% | 63% |
| Tennessee | 9/4 | 30.8% | 25.4% | 18% |
| Houston | 17/4 | 19.0% | 15.7% | 5% |
| Jacksonville | 17/4 | 19.0% | 15.7% | 14% |
| 121.2% | ||||
| AFC WEST | Open | %Chance | %Adj | Acc% |
| San Diego | 1/5 | 83.3% | 68.7% | 86% |
| Denver | 11/2 | 15.4% | 12.7% | 3% |
| Kansas City | 11/2 | 15.4% | 12.7% | 2% |
| Oakland | 14/1 | 6.7% | 5.5% | 9% |
| 120.8% |
In the NFC there is a team in each division with an AccuScore % higher than the Vegas % Chance unadjusted. I personally agree with all 4 picks, but with the exception of Arizona I would not come close to betting the farm on any of them.
Arizona is paying off even money but AccuScore gives them a 67% chance of winning the NFC West. While I would prefer it if Anquan Boldin was definitely going to be on the team this year, I do not have faith in the 49ers, Seahawks or Rams. I am a bit surprise to see Vegas offering even money. In terms of the difference between Vegas’s % Chance and AccuScore’s % the Cardinals are the biggest “lock” of all highlighted teams.
I plan on putting money on Dallas, Green Bay and New Orleans, but not a lot. They all have around a 33 percent chance of winning their divisions and I will likely hit just one of these 3 bets and will probably end up not making any profit. However, there’s around a 20% chance I go 2-1 and make a nice profit. In terms of the amount of the bet. If my wife lets me bet $1,000 I would not put down more than $100 total on these 3 teams, but I will make the bets.
WIN TOTALS
The analysis below is highly tentative because I don’t know what the juice is on the over/under. A bet like St. Louis under 5.0 may look good based on the -1.2 difference between AccuScore’s simulation average win total and the betting line, but what if you have to pay -135 on the under vs +130 on the over?
I identified the teams where the AccuScore simulation average win total was at least 0.5 points less than the betting line and highlighted a few teams that I personally like. I like the Under on Houston because they are in such a competitive division (Colts, Titans, Jaguars are one season removed from being in the AFC Championship game) and to lose the under bet they would need to win 9+ games. In AccuScore simulations they are only winning over 50% in 7 of their 16 games.
I also like Carolina to win under 9, although a push is highly likely. Carolina had an incredibly soft schedule in 2008 in terms of the quality of opposing run defenses. This allowed DeAngelo Williams to have an insanely productive season and it hid a lot of Jake Delhomme’s deficiencies. This season the opposing run defenses are much better which will have a domino effect (fewer yards on first and second down rushes, more 3rd and long, fewer first downs, time of possession goes down, etc.). Plus, it’s the NFC South. The winner one year always seems to fall the next season.
The Jets will not get good QB play this season. Kellen Clemens is not a QB who will lead the team to 8 or more wins. Mark Sanchez is a southern California born, USC QB who probably never has played a meaningful game in bad weather in his entire life. How is he going to handle playing in the winds of the Meadowlands or on the road in Buffalo and New England. Sanchez’s one major weakness is questionable arm strength. That’s the worst weakness to have being a Jets QB.
| UNDER PICKS | LINE | ACC | DIFF |
| Houston | 8.5 | 6.9 | -1.6 |
| St. Louis | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.2 |
| Tennessee | 9.5 | 8.3 | -1.2 |
| Kansas City | 6.0 | 5.1 | -0.9 |
| Carolina | 9.0 | 8.2 | -0.8 |
| Denver | 6.5 | 5.7 | -0.8 |
| N.Y. Jets | 7.0 | 6.2 | -0.8 |
| Detroit | 4.0 | 3.3 | -0.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 11.0 | 10.3 | -0.7 |
| Cleveland | 6.5 | 5.9 | -0.6 |
| Atlanta | 9.0 | 8.4 | -0.6 |
There are fewer Over picks and I only feel comfortable making one of them myself. I’m a little nervous about making two picks on Green Bay (to win the NFC North and to win over 8.5 games). Last season every NFC North team benefited by playing Detroit twice, but Green Bay did out-score opponents by 39 points last season. Even if you take out the Detroit games, Green Bay was statistically an 8-8 team at worse, if you disregard the biggest statistics (win-loss record). For them to go over 8.5 they need to have a defense that is average. The Packers were universally praised for their draft which included two top-rated defensive players BJ Raji and Clay Matthews. If these two can help Green Bay move from the bottom 3rd defending the run up to an average run defense then I like Green Bay to win 9 or even 10 games.
| OVER PICKS | LINE | ACC | DIFF |
| Miami | 8.0 | 8.7 | 0.7 |
| Minnesota | 9.0 | 9.7 | 0.7 |
| Green Bay | 8.5 | 9.8 | 1.3 |
| Oakland | 5.5 | 7.0 | 1.5 |
The rest of these teams I call a “push” because the simulation line and the betting line are pretty close to each other.
| "PUSH" | LINE | ACC | DIFF |
| N.Y. Giants | 10.0 | 9.7 | -0.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 6.5 | 6.2 | -0.3 |
| Buffalo | 7.5 | 7.3 | -0.2 |
| Philadelphia | 9.5 | 9.3 | -0.2 |
| New Orleans | 8.5 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| Arizona | 9.5 | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| Baltimore | 10.0 | 9.9 | -0.1 |
| Indianapolis | 10.5 | 10.5 | 0.0 |
| Seattle | 7.0 | 7.1 | 0.1 |
| Jacksonville | 8.0 | 8.1 | 0.1 |
| San Diego | 10.5 | 10.6 | 0.1 |
| San Francisco | 7.0 | 7.2 | 0.2 |
| Washington | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 |
| Chicago | 9.0 | 9.3 | 0.3 |
| Dallas | 9.5 | 9.8 | 0.3 |
| New England | 11.5 | 11.9 | 0.4 |
| Cincinnati | 6.0 | 6.5 | 0.5 |
RECAP
So these are my picks as I head to Vegas. If I discover radically different betting lines in the sportsbooks I’ll revise these picks based on what I find. Wish me luck.
